Peak TV is here, but it’s not going to last because there isn’t enough audience to go around. The collapse and consolidation is just a bit more than two years away. Here are my predictions.
Insightful as always! I do wonder, though, if GenZ will permanently be watching short-form content on mobile devices as they age. An old colleague of mine once said that if I tried to predict where I'd be able to best reach him with ads based on what he did when he was 12, he said you'd be putting ads next to those for Sea Monkeys in the backs of comic books, which he no longer read. While I think the "kids" are training themselves/being trained to engage in content that is shorter form when produced by others (e.g. TikTok) and longer when they are a participant (e.g. Roblox), I do wonder what kinds of platforms/screens they'll be on once in their 30s and 40s.
And what do you think of the AR/VR channel's place in this future ecosystem?
You are correct that we often think that media/entertainment consumption behaviors are indelible generational attributes when instead they're about life stage. However, if you don't acquire certain media habits (like watching TV on a big screen on the living room wall) early in life, then you're unlikely to develop them later.
On the HUD (Heads Up Display) front, I think VR is nonsense and AR/MR/XR is where it's at. That's a pedantic distinction, though. YES, I think that screens we wear on our faces will change media and narrative profoundly and in lots of ways... but until they get the weight and battery problems scaled WAY down this is like "next year is the year of mobile" for a while. The biggest short term change once HUD is cheap, lightweight, and at 4K resolution is that it will kill the big screen on the wall. If you and J can watch a movie together, each of you wearing glasses, without the "I could be killed by a monster" problem of VR, and the virtual screen is an IMAX, why would you bother with a real screen on your wall?
Insightful as always! I do wonder, though, if GenZ will permanently be watching short-form content on mobile devices as they age. An old colleague of mine once said that if I tried to predict where I'd be able to best reach him with ads based on what he did when he was 12, he said you'd be putting ads next to those for Sea Monkeys in the backs of comic books, which he no longer read. While I think the "kids" are training themselves/being trained to engage in content that is shorter form when produced by others (e.g. TikTok) and longer when they are a participant (e.g. Roblox), I do wonder what kinds of platforms/screens they'll be on once in their 30s and 40s.
And what do you think of the AR/VR channel's place in this future ecosystem?
Hey Jim,
You are correct that we often think that media/entertainment consumption behaviors are indelible generational attributes when instead they're about life stage. However, if you don't acquire certain media habits (like watching TV on a big screen on the living room wall) early in life, then you're unlikely to develop them later.
On the HUD (Heads Up Display) front, I think VR is nonsense and AR/MR/XR is where it's at. That's a pedantic distinction, though. YES, I think that screens we wear on our faces will change media and narrative profoundly and in lots of ways... but until they get the weight and battery problems scaled WAY down this is like "next year is the year of mobile" for a while. The biggest short term change once HUD is cheap, lightweight, and at 4K resolution is that it will kill the big screen on the wall. If you and J can watch a movie together, each of you wearing glasses, without the "I could be killed by a monster" problem of VR, and the virtual screen is an IMAX, why would you bother with a real screen on your wall?